Here’s why China won’t be invading Taiwan anytime soon. Read the full article below.
After Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s arrival in the United States last week and a brief meeting in California with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, China unsurprisingly responded with a show of force in the Taiwan Strait. After three days of military exercises, warships, fighter jets and even an aircraft carrier carried out what Beijing called “stimulated precision strikes” that serve as a dress rehearsal for a military encirclement of the island state that could one day lead to an invasion. . After the exercises were completed, China’s military declared itself ready at any time to “crush Taiwanese pro-independence separatism and external meddling in any way.”
Will China invade Taiwan in 2023?
Surprisingly, the Western media has covered this story as a potential emergency. In particular, it came when US-China relations are bad and getting worse. Chinese President Xi Jinping has gone further than his predecessors in declaring that Taiwan will be returned to the PRC by any means necessary, and President Joe Biden has said multiple times that the United States would come to Taiwan’s aid if China attack. Although representatives of his own administration have retracted some of his earlier comments.
It would be a foolish decision to ignore China’s provocations, for several reasons. Accidents can arise with so much hostile hardware moving through narrow lanes of air and water. Therefore, accidents can increase the risk of direct armed conflict between the two most powerful countries on Earth, which must be taken seriously. Although China won’t show Taiwan, the US, or anyone else exactly how it would launch a total blockade or invasion of Taiwan, China’s military finds it very valuable to practice. After all, Chinese troops haven’t faced a shooting war since a brief conflict with Vietnam in 1979. Finally, Taiwan will hold national elections next year. Although China’s latest bullying may not lead to a military conflict anytime soon. However, it may have an effect on how Taiwanese voters envision the future.
In conclusion, the actual risk of imminent Chinese military action against Taiwan remains low. Beijing always shows military force when the highest level Taiwanese American officials meet face to face. Yet while President McCarthy’s visit to Taiwan’s president marks the highest-level US-Taiwan meeting on US soil since 1979, China’s latest response was less militarily threatening than its reaction to last summer’s visit to Taiwan. Taiwan under then-President Nancy Pelosi, and Beijing is well aware that Washington will likely see it.
There is also the critical issue of semiconductors. About 90 percent of the world’s most sophisticated computer chips are made in Taiwan. China, the US and others are working as fast as possible to lessen the risk of an economic catastrophe that would result if production were drastically slowed or even banned, but self-sufficiency in chip production is years away for everyone. countries. China is loathe to risk a conflict that would leave its economy without access to the most important economic resource of the 21st century.
One day, China may invade Taiwan, triggering a war with global implications. But that day is not soon. When and if he does so will be determined by China’s leader, not as a result of any diplomatic provocation, but by his own calculation of benefits and costs. Today, it is still possible to hope that cooler heads can one day find a diplomatic solution to avoid a war that would have disastrous implications far beyond Asia.
Thanks for being a patient reader.